I think his "I'll be alright but who knows about everyone else" comment is simply honest. And he's insistent that even if he *is* okay, this practice is a bad idea (if I'm understanding him correctly). I'm not a huge fan of his books--not since the first few. But he's a consistent seller for bookstores. One could even argue that b/c of authors like him drawing people into stores and providing the bulk of sales, newer and lesser-known authors are being picked up and read as well. Sure, some people come in solely for the latest by Grisham or Stephen King or Mary Higgins Clark, but others pick up the new release and then browse until they have something by some promising new author in their hands as well.

My parents started an independent bookstore 35 years ago, and it's still up and running, now owned by my brother and managed by my sister. Business is a lot tougher than it was even 5 years ago. The hours are longer, the profits smaller, the customers harder to please. Bookstores, as you know--at least the independents--only get a 40% break off the cover price of trade books. So when you're talking about Amazon and WalMart selling their books for less than 50% of the cover price, of course the average bookstore is going to suffer either through loss of sales or loss of profits by trying to keep up. And when more and more have to shut their doors b/c they lose too much, we're going to end up with nothing but Amazon and these monster chains that virtually any economist will tell you are not good for a stable economy in the long run.

As Grisham says, it's incredibly short-sighted, and there has to be a bottoming out at some point. I just hope it's sooner rather than later.

This is how I think it will play out:

1) E-books will increase in popularity as readers and multi-purpose devices become more popular and affordable.

2) Small independent bookstores will go out of business as the book-buying model shifts to match the consumer demand for e-books. Large chains with significant online presence will acclimate and survive.

3) Small independent publishers will go out of business as the publishing industry struggles to match the demand from book buyers. Large publishing corps will acclimate and survive.

4) New Indie bookstores will replace the ones who closed, and many of them will have a strong Internet presence, because online stores don't have the overhead of brick-and-mortar stores.

5) Small indie publishers will popup to replace the ones that closed. Also, more publishers will start selling their books directly to consumers. Bookstores will complain about direct-selling.

7) Amazon, Wal-mart, and Target will have another price war, this time over movies or CD's and that industry will wring their hands and bemoan the fate of their industry.

Grisham was right that big-list authors do not have to worry about the shift, as they will continue to sell bunches of books in whatever format to their adoring fans.

Debut and mid-list authors will suffer as publishing adjusts. For a while (a few years?) publishers will be more selective about the books they buy, but as the hoopla settles down and the industry starts to realize profit from e-books, debut and mid-list authors will be gobbled up as publishers try to meet demand.

This is not the end of publishing or books. It is merely a shift in the publishing paradigm. There are dozens of e-book publishers out there (I can name 6 off the top of my head and I know next to nothing about it) who will continue to buy new books from new authors during this shift.

Amazon and online shopping have not shut down all the malls and e-books will not shut down the brick-and-mortar bookshops. Yes, there will be significant changes, and more bookstores will go online to sell e- and paper books to their customers (or they will if they want to stay in business), but there will always be people who want the permanency of holding the book in their hands and smelling the paper.

I wonder if we would have a John Grisham if this shift in the business model and technology had happened 21 years ago when A TIME TO KILL released. That, I think, is the real tragedy. What cultural icons are we denying ourselves for the sake of saving a few bucks?

While I agree that this issue is short sighted and will cause pain to people like me, an unpublished author, I also believe indies will continue to exist. There are indie video stores in my neighborhood that thrive. Some of my favorite music today comes from the indie scene. The same will emerge for writers and publishers. I believe the split will just become more obvious.

Maybe I'm just an optimist.

So, it is killing me, Elana. What are your thoughts on this one?

Seems like E-Publishing is where it's going, huh? Jeez. I can't believe these stores selling hard cover books for $10. That's just wrong.

Grrr.

I didn't get the feeling that his comments were meant in a flippant way. I got the feeling that he (at least thought) was just answering Lauer's question. He seemed to go on to say that he he believes thee situation has serious longterm implications. So I wouldn't say he was thinking, "screw everyone else. I'll be fine."

Maybe he's showing that he doesn't have a dog in the race and from that point of view, his argument has more credibility.

Just my thoughts...